By Emma Bonnet On May 28, 2024 4 minutes

USD/JPY Eyes 158.51 Target Amid Bullish Trends

Quick Look:

Intraday Bias and Targets: The USD/JPY intraday bias is mildly bullish, targeting 158.51, based on a 100% projection from previous movements.
Key Levels: Resistance at 158.51 indicates further gains if breached; immediate support is at 155.83, with significant support at 153.69 and 151.86.
Medium-Term Outlook: Potential medium-term top at 160.20; critical support at 150.87, with a break indicating a larger correction towards 146.47.

Intraday bias in the USD/JPY currency pair remains mildly on the upside, with the market eyeing a 100% projection of the move from 151.86 to 156.78, derived from the rise starting at 153.59. This sets the target at 158.51, indicating potential for further gains. However, the market remains cautious, with key levels to watch on both the upside and downside, influenced by technical patterns and broader economic indicators.

USD/JPY Upside Potential And Key Resistance Levels

The current intraday bias shows a leaning towards the upside, targeting the 100% projection at 158.51. This projection is based on previous price movements and reflects the ongoing bullish sentiment in the market. The USD/JPY pair has demonstrated resilience, bouncing from lower levels and attempting to reach new highs. As traders monitor this target, the key resistance level to watch is at 158.51, which, if breached, could signal further upward momentum and potentially new highs for the pair.

On the downside, the immediate support level is identified at 155.83. A break below this minor support will neutralise the intraday bias, suggesting a pause in the current upward trend. Further, a decisive break of 153.69 would indicate a move towards the 151.86 level, marking the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. This highlights the importance of these support levels in determining the short-term direction of the USD/JPY pair.

Medium-Term Outlook And Key Support Levels

In the bigger picture, there is speculation that a medium-term top might have been formed at 160.20. This level has acted as a significant resistance point, and the subsequent price movements have indicated a potential correction. However, as long as the 150.87 resistance turned support holds, the decline from 160.20 is viewed as a correction of the broader rise from 150.25. This support level is crucial in maintaining the bullish outlook in the medium term.

A decisive break of 150.87, however, would argue for a larger correction, potentially targeting the next support level at 146.47. This scenario would indicate a shift in market sentiment, with increased bearish pressure and a potential reevaluation of the overall trend. Traders should closely monitor these key levels to understand the broader implications for the USD/JPY pair and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Market Influences: Japan’s Economic Indicators And Intervention Risks

Economic indicators from Japan, particularly the Tokyo CPI report, significantly shape the USD/JPY outlook. The Tokyo CPI report is a leading indicator of national inflation trends and is closely watched by traders and policymakers alike. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been aiming for higher inflation to justify potential interest rate hikes. However, recent CPI figures have shown a decline, challenging this outlook and adding uncertainty to the BOJ’s policy direction.

Additionally, the yen found some strength following remarks from Japan’s top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda. Kanda’s warnings against speculative yen declines and indications that Japan is ready to intervene at any time have raised fears of possible market intervention. This has led to two suspected interventions, which temporarily strengthened the yen. Despite these interventions, the yen has since given up some of its gains, reflecting ongoing volatility and uncertainty in the currency markets.

The USD/JPY pair navigates a complex landscape of technical levels and economic influences. Traders should watch the key resistance and support levels, economic indicators, and potential interventions to make informed decisions. The interplay of these factors will determine the short-term and medium-term direction of the USD/JPY, offering opportunities and risks for market participants.